Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

Expectation Propagation for Continuous Time Bayesian Networks

Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which represents a finite state continuous time Markov process whose transition model is a function of its parents. As shown previously, exact inference in CTBNs is ...

Stochastic Expectation Propagation

Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local approximations that are iteratively refined for each datapoint. EP can offer analytic and computational advantages over other approximations, such as Variational Inference...

Stochastic Processes in Continuous Time

1 Basic Concepts 3 1.1 Notions of equivalence of stochastic processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.2 Sample path properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.3 Properties of filtrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.4 Stopping times . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....

Stochastic Expectation Propagation: Supplementary Material

The supplementary material is divided into these sections. Section A details the design of stochastic power EP methods and presents relationships between SEP and SVI. Section B extends the discussion of distributed algorithms and SEP’s applicability to latent variable models. Section C provides experimental details of the Bayesian neural network experiments and presents further emprical evaluca...

Part II CONTINUOUS TIME STOCHASTIC PROCESSES